Jefferies on Hindalco
Buy Call, Target Raised To Rs 810
Novelis’ Q4 EBITDA Rose 28% YoY (+13% QoQ) & In-line
Volumes Grew 2% YoY While EBITDA/t Rose 8% QoQ To $540, A 7-qtr High
Co’s Earnings Outlook Is Improving With Beverage Can Demand Inflecting Upwards
Raise FY25-26E EPS By 2-3%
Valuations Reasonable At 6.1x FY25E EV/EBITDA
CLSA on Hindalco
Buy Call, Target Rs 770
Novelis’ Profitability Above Guidance While Volume Uptick Modest
Novelis Sees Further Levers For Margin Improvement, Such As Price Revisions
Levers For Margin Imprvement Is A rise in recycling content & Ops efficiencies
Capex Has Been Guided At $1.8 Bn-2.1 Bn
Capex Could Drive Up Leverage But Remain Below 3x
Debt Reduction is In-line With Seasonality
Citi on Guj Gas
Sell Call, Target Rs 450
Q4 Below Expectations, EBITDA whilst up 48% QoQ was 20% below est
Believe Q4 represents a near-term peak in earnings for Co
Higher LNG Prices Whilst Declining Propane Prices Could Impact Margins &/Or Volumes
Valuations At 26x FY26E P/E Are Unjustifiably High, With Peers At 12-13x P/E
Jefferies on Godrej Cons
Buy Call, Target Rs 1,520
Q4 Above Est, With 18% LFL EBITDA Growth
Key Positives Include HSD & Industry-Leading Vol Growth In Soaps
Double-digit Vol Growth In Emerging Categories
Strong Traction In Indonesia & Good EBITDA Delivery In GAUM Despite Fx Headwinds
Weak HI Was Key Dampener, Given Extended Winter
Further Initiatives (LV Launch) Here Should Help
GS on Godrej Cons
Buy, TP Rs 1425
Sector leading vol growth in India continue
Strong consol. EBITDA & PAT growth
India delivers high vol growth despite weak HI season
RCCL brands grew 22% YoY, integration complete
Indonesia’s growth accelerates, healthy margin expansion
Citi on Marico
Buy Call, Target Raised To Rs 610
Q4 In-line; Distribution Initiatives, Pricing Action To Drive Growth
Expect Trajectory To Improve In FY25 Due To Volume Growth Acceleration
Expect Trajectory To Improve In FY25 Due To Pricing-led Growth
Co Took 6% Price Hike In Parachute In April 2024
Believe Continued Focus On NPDs/Innovations Should Be Accretive To Overall Growth
With Strong Growth In International Biz Should Be Accretive To Overall Growth
CLSA on Marico
Sell Call, Target Rs 460
Subdued Volume Growth And Value Growth In Q2; Margin Improved
Margin Improvement Continues But Question Is If This Is At The Cost Of Growth
Distribution Expansion Through Project Setu
Core Categories Continue To Face Structural Issues
GS on Marico
Buy, TP Rs 610
4Q consol. EBITDA grew 12% YoY, driven by 190bps YoY EBITDA margin expansion
Vol & pricing trends also saw clear improvement.
Vol growth improved to 3%, & revenue grew 2% YoY compared to a decline in past few qtrs.
Nomura on Lupin
Buy Call, Target Rs 1,949
Q4 EBITDA 8% Higher Than Estimate
Co Expects Stronger FY25 Driven By Growth Across Key Geographies
Co Expects Stronger FY25 Driven By Improvement In EBITDA Margin
Think US Product Launches Could Present Upside Potential To Current Earnings Est
A Tight Leash On Costs Could Present Upside Potential To Current Earnings Est
Stock Currently Trades At 31.1x/23.7x FY25/26 EPS Of Rs 54.1/70.9
MS on Titagarh Rail
Initiate OW, TP Rs 1285
see strong evidence of a revival in India’s railways, & believe Titagarh is a large beneficiary
View freight as a cash cow & passenger business as a new growth engine
Forecast a strong 28% earnings CAGR, F24-F27
Freight wagon execution: 1,000 wagons/month, F25-F27e (F24e: 780).
Pax coach execution: 26, 76 & 96 coaches/qtr. in F25e, F26e & F27e (F24e: 7)
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