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Yields, UBS S&P outlook, Nvidia record close: Market takeaways


As today’s trading session concludes, Yahoo Finance’s Josh Schafer highlights three key takeaways for the day. First, the momentum in the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) could potentially act as a headwind for stocks. Schafer adds that UBS maintains a bullish outlook on the growth prospects of the S&P 500 (^GSPC). He also highlights that Nvidia (NVDA) stock hit a milestone, closing at an all-time high.

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Asking for a Trend.

This post was written by Angel Smith

Video Transcript

Tech heavy NASDAQ reaching record highs as the benchmark S and P 500 finishes the day just above the flat line.

Here was some of the trading day takeaways as Yahoo Finance is Josh Schafer, Josh.

Hey Josh.

Yeah.

So we’re gonna start with that trading action for today.

Our top takeaway today which just moves in the 10 year treasury yield, still remaining noteworthy and perhaps a headwind for stocks when we see the 10 year treasury yield come up.

So I want to take a look closer at some of the charts here specifically with the S and P 500.

You look at the S and P today when we really started heading lower was right around 1 p.m. right?

That’s where we took that leg lower.

Well, if we look at the bond market, Josh and we look at what happened at that time.

Let’s look at the tenure.

That’s right when the 10 year started peaking up, right?

And this is a trend we’ve been talking about for a while now when I zoom out here and we look at the 10 year over the last two months.

If I can get that to work, it’s not gonna work for me.

But over the last two months, you can see when the tenure goes up.

Realistically, what’s been happening is stocks have been down right.

Here’s what I was looking for.

So this is when the tenure went up a lot.

Right.

We were talking about it pretty much daily on the show.

What happened in April, we had a 5% pull back in stocks right in the S and P 500.

So realistically just kind of the key trend to watch here has simply been when yields go up, it’s a headwind for stocks and on a day like today where it felt like NVIDIA is up positive vibes in the market, maybe a little bit of an A I rally.

Why didn’t you see more out of the S and P 500?

Sometimes your answer is right here and some of those bond offerings that happened at 1 p.m. and, and, and Josh also like, listen, basically earnings effectively in the rearview mirror.

So now you get back to Macro and you start focusing more on the benchmark tenure when you’re kind of combing through the notes.

What are some of the levels, you know, analysts, strategists, technicians, what are they looking at?

I I think as we get between 4.5% and 5% on the tenure, it seems to be be anything higher is not great.

There aren’t a ton of technical levels.

I’ve seen highlighted recently, like at one point we were looking 4.35 that five, we’re now past 4.5.

So it’s sort of where are we going to float in between there?

But I think what you pointed out there is key just moving forward, especially this week when we have PC at the end of the week, any moves that we’re seeing in the bond market with earnings, sort of in the rearview mirror, I think are gonna be probably a big driver for the market.

All right, what’s up next on the Schafer t up next?

Let’s get back to earnings though, right?

Because earnings are exciting to talk about right?

And another bullish call for the S and P 500.

This one coming from U BS UB Jonathan Golub, Jonathan go so much TV.

Jonathan, I wanna get him back, we gotta get him back, we gotta get him back to talk about charts like this because he’s talking a lot about earnings and really what stands out here.

So this is consensus expectations for earnings growth are these three numbers at the end.

So we’re looking for 17.6% earnings growth year over year in the fourth quarter.

That number has been moving up.

So is this number and so is this number?

So this number 11.4% on the year that’s been steadily moving up over the last two months.

So has this number for 2025 at 14.2%.

And what gala points out?

Normally those move down.

So go back here and you take a look at 11.4%.

Normally, this number would be coming down and it would look more like this blue line here.

But what’s happening right now is analysts feel better about the outlook and if we’re feeling better about the earnings outlook, that is a good thing for stocks.

So to see it, this resilient up here is something that multiple strategists have been highlighting.

Say, ok, the earnings outlook is better than we thought that’s net net, just a positive for stocks and a positive for the R. So companies are better than maybe they initially thought.

If you look under the hood, not necessarily what gollop seen, but just in general, Josh, where do you see sort of that positive earnings revision?

Yes.

So going back to the start of April, it’s been utilities and energy utility reason, energy have had the best earnings revisions of any of the sectors in the S and P 500.

Of course, if I were to pull up a chart of sectors over the last two months, utilities and energy have been rallying pretty good here.

So you’ve certainly seen that playing out in the market thus far.

The third one, we got one more take away you have to end.

We we cannot talk about that all time high today, closed over 1100 for the first time.

And I think what stuck out to me, I saw this chart from Goldman Sachs Josh.

And what we’re looking at here is data center, wallet share.

So sort of where the spending is going in data center.

You can see NVIDIA is in purple.

Look at that.

I don’t need to say much chart.

You can just see the purple slowly take over.

And what this means to me is when someone like Elon Musk says that they’re building A I and they’re gonna need some way to power it.

It’s these guys in purple, right?

It’s all on video and NVIDIA benefits from that stock was up, I think about 5% today.

So it’s been interesting to just see how they’re sort of dominating this market, right?

You know, Elon Musk comes out, Josh and he says my start up Xa I, we’re gonna be a player.

We’re gonna take on open A I, we’re gonna take on meta.

I’m gonna raise $6 billion investors just think.

Well, then you’re gonna need Jensen Wong, Jensen Wong talking about that 6 billion Elon Musk and A I.

Last week it all starts to add together a little bit though.

Joshua.

Thank you.

Appreciate it.



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